в среду был брифинг с анонимными официальными лицамиQUESTION:
Have you seen or has the U.S. seen any movement of any of these new Russian conscripts into the battle space? Can you just paint us a picture of Russian force posture changes over the last week or more? Thank you.
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL:
And the conscripts, and there has been open source reporting on the conscripts. I think the first portions of the -- of the mobilized members of Russian society have, in fact, made it into Ukraine in small numbers. There was reporting I saw this morning that was talking about the first death of a mobilized soldier.
I think it was -- and I want to say it was social media where the mother was going back and forth on social media about the loss of her son. But again that was social media reporting.
I think just to address the mobilization piece. You know this is -- I mean it's certainly something to be concerned with. You know when you about the mobilization of upwards of 300,000 people, it's much harder to generate that force than I think folks will say.
You know we certainly have seen protest across the country and concern from the Russian population about the mobilization but just the mechanics of outfitting that size of a force is very difficult. Then when you consider the fact that the majority of the people who would train those individuals, those individuals are in Ukraine.
And you know, we know that their ability to train -- in fact, the open source I saw on the individual I was talking about before said that they had reported -- when they were mobilized they had reported they received one day of training, and then they had been sent to Ukraine. I just think about the level of training that we put in our own armed forces, and know that that's far -- pretty inadequate.
- США видели какие-н. передвижения этих русских призывников на поле боя? Что за неделю изменилось в положении рашистских сил?
- Была какая-то инфо из открытых источников. Кажется, первые порции мобилизованных доставили в Украину, небольшими порциями. Я видел утром были сообщения уже про первые трупы среди них. В соцсетях какая-то мамаша про потерю сына.
Насчёт этой мобилизации. Конечно тут есть о чём беспокоиться. Знаете, когда надо мобилизовать 300 тыщ, гораздо труднее сгенерировать такие войска, чем люди думают.
Мы конечно видели протесты в рф и беспокойство рашистов, но даже просто механика - оснастить такое войско - это очень тяжело. Притом, представьте, что большинство персонажей, которые должны этих мобиков тренировать, сейчас в Украине воюют.
А уж мы знаем про их способности тренировать! В открытых источниках было, один товарищ рассказывал - когда их мобилизовали, их тренировали всего один день! И после этого послали в Украину! Я сравниваю, сколько мы наших тренируем, и вы знаете, это совсем неадекватно.
Q:
And again, for the Senior Military Official, conscripts, numbers, where are they going? Do you have a sense?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yes, so I don't necessarily have a sense on the numbers that have entered into Ukraine at this point. And in terms of where they're going, I'm quite honestly, I don't know that I've seen a particular location that they've gone as much as they've entered Ukraine. My guess is over the course of, you know, the next several weeks we'll start to have an idea as to where they're going out.
If you look at where the Russians are having problems, it's really all over the battle space. So they've got a requirement to reinforce -- you know, in the north near Bakhmut in the center, as well as down in Kherson. So, a tough problem for the Russians.
- призывники - какое кол-во? куда их направляют?
- У меня нет кол-ва. Куда направляют? Честно, не могу сказать, что я видел определённое место. След. несколько недель посмотрим.
По идее, их должны направлять, где у них проблемы - но где их нет? И у Бахмута, и у Херсона, везде русским плохо.
Q: And just quickly, as far as the conscripts, do you see any more armor going in, or is it just -- they're just dropping them off wherever?
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: No, I -- you know, we haven't seen an increase. And that's part of the problem they've got is the Ukrainians have done a pretty good job of destroying Russian equipment over the course of the last seven plus months. And as you would guess, that equipment is in most cases irreplaceable.
I've seen -- and this is again, open source stuff. I've seen them talking about -- I've seen a report that they're talking about using T-55 tanks, as an example. You know, the thought that you'd employ a T-55 tank in a fight tells you how bad off you are in terms of your ability to equip people.
- насчёт мобиков, а танки у них тоже прибывают? не видели? Или они только мясо такие закидывают?
- Нет, вот знаете, новых танков не видели. И в этом у них часть проблемы - украинцы очень хорошо побомбили их оборудование за последние месяцы. И как понимаете, оборудование не всегда заменишь.
Я даже видел - тоже в открытых источниках - что они уже и Т-55 танки достали. Когда тебе приходится садиться на танк Т-55, призадумаешься небось, что дела у тебя совсем плохи.
Q: Hi, thanks so much for doing this. Two questions.
For the Senior Defense Official, I just wanted to ask what is the reason for doing this through USAI? I know we've seen you give -- transfer HIMARS through PDA previously. So what's the reason we're not transferring HIMARS through PDA now? It's kind of interesting to me that these weapons are going to take two years to get to the battlefield. Does this -- do we not have any available in inventory now to give the Ukrainians?
And then secondly, for the Senior Military Official, just on the conscripts. What's your assessment whether Russia will be able to get to the goal of 300,000 conscripts for this fight?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: OK, hey there. So I'll talk about the USAI question. So if we don't invest today to procure HIMARS for the future, they won't be there when the Ukrainian Armed Forces need them down the road. And this is a really sizable investment, it's 18 HIMARS.
If you consider we've provided them with 16 to-date via presidential drawdown authority and the allies have provided another 10 equivalent MLRS systems -- this is a really sizable investment and it's intended so that down the road Ukraine will have what it needs for the long haul to deter future threats. But in no way rules out us continuing to invest in their current force with capabilities that are available today and that we can drawdown today from U.S. stocks.
SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: And, Lara, on the mobilization piece, you know, so I think the thought is that they -- by opening up to mobilization they had the ability to mobilize up to 300,000. I don't know that they'll get to 300,000, Russia is a pretty big country.
I think what's more interesting about it is the fact that they've had to do this, quite honestly. I mean, they mobilized twice before this, one was in 1914 and one was in 1941. So if you think about the consequences that they kind of feel that they're in right now and you compare that to World War I and World War II, that certainly says a lot about what the Ukrainians have been able to do to the Russian Army.
- Два вопроса. К министерскому лицу - почему мы поставляем им хаймарсы через USAI (заказ в индустрии, займёт 2 года)? Раньше через PDA поставляли. Почему сейчас нельзя? Два года же ждать. Неужели у нас нету ничего готового сейчас им дать?
К военному лицу - про мобиков. Думаете, рф найдёт 300 тыщ дураков и зашлёт их?
Министерское лицо: если мы сейчас в индустрии не закажем, то через два года ничего не появится. А им наверняка пригодится.
Мы им уже 16 штук дали, и союзники ещё 10 эквивалентов дали, а эти им тоже не помешают через 2 года. Но это не значит, что мы перестанем давать сейчас из наших запасов.
Военное лицо: россия наверно может найти 300 тыщ дураков. Не знаю, найдут ли, но это большая страна, дураков у них много.
Но гораздо интереснее тот факт, что им вообще пришлось об'являть мобилизацию, честно говоря. До этого у них было 2 мобилизации - в 1914 и в 1941. Прикиньте, как они себя ощущают, типа как во время первой и второй мировой войны? Это много говорит о том, что украинцы сделали с русской армией.
Q: Yes, I’m here, thanks. I was curious if there is going to be another PDA before the end of the fiscal year here in a couple days? Or if not are you leaving anything on the table? And two, when it comes to cold weather, is – are any of the future procurements coming going to be focused on things like cold weather gear and other things that will be unique to a more winter fight?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Sure, I can tackle both of those. In terms of the cold weather gear, we have provided some of that, I don’t have the numbers handy. But I can also tell you that with our allies there is a considerable effort led by the U.K. to provide a whole range of cold weather gear and equipment so that the Ukrainians will have what they need this winter. That’s something that we’ve discussed in the Ukraine defense contact group meetings and our next meeting is right around the corner. So we’ll continue to push for that there.
In terms of presidential drawdown, it’s important to note this isn’t actually money to be left on the table. This is authority. So it’s authority that enables us to draw from U.S. stock. And we are very closely watching to see whether the U.S. Congress will continue to be so incredibly supportive and generous in providing us with this authority. We have requested an additional $3.6 billion in presidential drawdown authority. And certainly if that is enacted that would enable us to continue along with our drawdown process starting as soon as the very beginning of the fiscal year.
But I want to assure you that we have mechanisms to be able to continue to use the current authority should that be necessary. But again I’m very hopeful because the U.S. Congress has just been so supportive to date. Over.
- будут ли в ближайшие пару дней (до конца фискального года) поставки из запасов по PDA? Если нет, какие альтернативы рассматриваются?
И насчёт холодной погоды - будут ли поставки спец. зимнего оборудования?
- Насчёт зимнего оборудования, мы уже что-то такое поставляли, у меня сейчас нет цифр. Но наши союзники тоже, особенно Британия целую кучу всего собрала.
Насчёт PDA, не то что там деньги какие-то лежат и пропадают. Это полномочия. Полномочия взять со склада. И мы внимательно следим, будет ли конгресс нас так же поддерживать в будущем, давать нам полномочия. Мы запросили дополнительные полномочия взять на 3,6 мильярда. И если они нам дадут, мы сразу подпрыгнем и побежим с самого начала нового фискального года.
Но у нас есть механизмы продолжать использовать и старые полномочия, если придётся. Но у меня большие надежды на конгресс, потому что раньше они не упирались.
