кстати DoD наносит новый удар, то есть брифингDay 44. I know everybody's interested in this missile strike on the Kramatorsk train station. Obviously, we are not buying the denial by the Russians that they weren't responsible. I would note that they originally claimed a successful strike, and then only retracted it when there were reports of civilian casualties. So it's our full expectation that this was a Russian strike. We believe they used a short-range ballistic missile, an SS-21, and we'll leave it to local authorities to speak to the casualties and the damage. We don't have perfect visibility into that.
день 44. Все конечно слышали по удару по вокзалу в Краматорске. Мы конечно не купимся на рашистские отмазки, что это не они. Они вообще-то изначально хвастались удачным ударом, а потом стали врать, что это не они, когда пошли сообщения про мирные жертвы. Мы думаем, они использовали CC-21. Местные власти всё рассказали про жертвы, они лучше знают.
Some of you may ask, "Well, why that train station and what was the reason?" We -- as we've said before, we don't have perfect visibility into the Russian targeting process, but it is a train station and it is located -- if you look at the map, it's located not very far from Izyum, just to the south, right on the edge of the line of contact between Russian and Ukrainian forces in the Donbas area. It's a major rail hub, so I think I would just leave it at that. That -- I think that says a lot right there.
Вы, может, хотите спросить "почему вокзал??" Невозможно умом понять рашистов. Ну я не знаю, вокзал недалеко от Изюма, на юг от него, на линии контакта рашистов и украинцев в Донбасе. Это большой ж/д узел. Вот и думайте.
In general, we see some units making their way to Belgorod, and indications that some other units will be making their way to a town called I will butcher this, but I'll spell it for you -- Valuyki -- V-A-L-U-Y-K-I, which is -- which lies to the southeast of Belgorod in Russia. It's right near the border with Ukraine and that northern part of the Donbas. We think that that area is going to serve as one of these resupply/refit areas for these troops, and we have seen indications that some units are moving in that direction as we speak.
мы видим, что некоторые части, которые сбежали из-под Киева, ползут в Белгород, и некоторые из них вроде бы ползут в этот, как его, щас сломаю язык, но исковеркаю - Валуйки - на юго-восток от белгорода. Прямо у границы с Украиной, северной частью Донбаса. Думаем, они там будут пополняться.
As for where we're seeing the fighting -- continues in southern and eastern Ukraine, including near Kharkiv, still being fought over. Izyum, we've talked about Izyum now for many, many days; along that joint force operation area, again, that's where this train station is, along the edge of that JFO. Obviously, Mariupol is still seeing heavy fighting, and we continue to see fighting around Mykolaiv, even though we don't hold the Russians actually in Mykolaiv.
Бои сейчас на юге и востоке. Харьков до сих пор. Изюм. Операция на востоке, где как раз тот вокзал был. В Мариуполе до сих пор тяжёлые бои. И вокруг Николаева, но в самом Николаеве рашистов нет.
In the air, Russia's sortie count, it came in over the last 24 hours at between 240 and 250, so roughly in line with what we've seen in recent days. The overall, overwhelming weight and focus of their strikes over the last 24 were on Mariupol and in that JFO, so clearly, they are focusing a large part of their strike activity on that eastern and southern part of Ukraine, again, in keeping with what we believe they're going to try to do.
с воздуха рашисты бомбят много, фокусируются в Мариуполе и на востоке
Q: Thank you, (inaudible). On the -- your description of the Russian troops that are moving -- some of which are moving toward the Belgorod area for refit and resupply, do you have any sense of how long a process that might be before they're likely to be moved into the Donbas area in terms of days, weeks or longer?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: On the refit, Bob, we don't know for sure how long this is going to take because some units are much more devastated than others. We've seen indications of some units that are literally, for all intents and purposes, eradicated. There's just nothing left of the BTG except a handful of troops, and maybe a small number of vehicles, and they're going to have to be reconstituted or reapplied to others. We've seen others that are, you know, down 30 percent manpower, or even higher. And so it's going to depend on -- and I don't want to speak for the Russians here, but it's going to depend on the health of these units and what the Russians want to do to get them combat-ready again. I suspect that with some units, they'll be able to move much faster than with others.
But I would say this: We believe that they have not solved all of their logistics and sustainment problems; that those problems did not just exist inside Ukraine. They existed outside Ukraine, and still do exist. And so our sense is that they will likely not be able to reinforce the eastern part of the country with any great speed. I know that's not completely satisfactory. I couldn't give you days or weeks. It's really going to depend on the unit and how ready they are to get back into the fight. But we don't believe that in general, this is going to be a speedy process for them given the kinds of casualties they've taken and the kind of damages they've sustained to their units' readiness.
- насчёт рашистов, которые идут в белгород пополняться, - у вас есть какие-то прогнозы, долго ли они будут это делать, и когда они пойдут в Донбас, типа дни или недели или что?
- Мы не знаем, сколько это займёт, потому что некоторые части хуже выглядят, чем другие. Некоторых вообще, честно говоря, я бы сказал, больше нет. Пара дебилов и три хромых танка. Другие может минус 30%. Или больше чем 30%. Не могу говорить за русских, но всё зависит от здоровья этих частей, и что русские считают "здоровыми частями". Некоторые части может они быстрее отправят назад.
Но я так скажу: они ведь не решили своих логистических проблем. Эти проблемы их не только в Украине настигают, это у них в скрепах. Поэтому мы не думаем, что они очень быстро укрепят свои силы на востоке. Понимаю, плохой ответ, не могу сказать, дни или недели. Но мы не думаем, что быстро, учитывая, как их поколбасили.
Q: Yeah, as far as the Russian troops heading to Belgorod and that other town you mentioned, do you have any sense of the way -- I know they're refitting it and so forth -- any sense of the way ahead once that is done? Do you think they'll drop down into Kharkiv or will they swing around into the, you know, far east of Donbas and then head in west?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: So again, it's going to depend on the unit and what this unit is equipped to do and what they want to do. And I want to be careful here because some of what we know -- you know, we don't want to put out there, but we do think that one of the -- we do think that one of the reasons they're looking at this town called Valuyki -- it's very close to the border with the Donbas, just to the north of it. And so we have every expectation that, should they refit there, that the most likely course of action would be for them to move immediately south, right into the Donbas right from there.
(CROSSTALK)
...there’s no need to swing around. You could go, you know, right across the border there.
We have seen that the northeast grouping of troops -- the grouping that originally was applied against Kharkiv, coming out of Belgorod, that grouping now, we have seen them plus up by just under 10 BTGs. So we have seen that grouping increase in size, in or around the Donbas area. It's hard to say exactly where each of these are but we have seen them increase.
But exactly what line of access they're going to use, we just don't know that right now, Tom.
- вот эти, которые ползут в белгород и этот другой город, как его, - как вы думаете, куда они потом попрут? На Харьков или на Донбас?
- Мы думаем, что причина, по которой они ползут в Валуйки - это что оно прямо около Донбаса. Чтоб потом оттуда попереть в Донбас.
Те части, которые напали на Харьков, они шли из белгорода. А теперь вот они ближе к Донбасу идут.
Но так-то невозможно предсказать движения больного ума, сами понимаете.
Q: And do we -- do you still believe that what the plan for the Russians is to continue to try to block the Ukrainian Army in by coming south or north along that axis and block them in?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: We still believe that one of their objectives is to fix Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donbas and then engage them in combat to occupy the Donbas completely.
But they certainly -- we believe another objective is to fix them there so that they can't be used for the defense of the country anywhere else, including, you know, moving down towards the south. But again, I want to stress that right now we believe that the Russian locus of energy and effort is going to be in the south and in the east.
So fixing those troops there is a part of it but they have shown less desire now to go after further targets to the west. They are clearly focusing their efforts on the east.
- вы всё ещё думаете, что рашистский план - блокировать украинскую армию, идя с юга и с севера?
- мы думаем, они хотят зафиксировать украинские силы на Донбасе и воевать там с ними, чтобы оккупировать Донбас полностью.
Мы думаем, другая цель ещё, зафиксировать украинцев там, чтобы они не смогли вырваться и защищать страну в другом месте, на юге например.
Т.е. эти цели есть, но главное для рашистов пока восток, а не другие цели западнее.
Q: Hi. Thanks. Is the number of troops in the east still about 30 battalion tactical groups? Has that changed?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: We actually think it's -- as I said, we think they've increased it now. So we believe it's probably up over 40.
- у рашистов на востоке до сих пор 30 БТГ?
- вообще-то мы думаем, он увеличили их, может быть уже больше 40.
Q:
And secondly, you mentioned some Russian troops going from Georgia to Ukraine. Have you seen them move and what are the numbers that you're seeing if you have?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL:
I don't have an update for you on where the troops coming out of Georgia went. Again, I mentioned at the time we're not going to have perfect visibility on all their movements but we have said before that they're going to reinforce the east, and they have. They're up over 40 BTGs in that northeastern grouping of troops that are or will be soon applied to the east. We see them moving now towards Belgorod and this town called Belgorod and this town called Valuyki, for refit. And so, I mean, all the things we've been talking about, you're actually seeing bear out.
We can even, you know, talk about one unit in particular that we know, the 18th Motorized Rifle Division, they're being transferred to the eastern borders of Ukraine. It's a new division that was formed only in 2021, consists of three mechanized infantry regiments as well as an armored regiment.
And our assessment is that they're expected to be applied in eastern Ukraine in the Kramatorsk area, in the area near where that train station was. So, we're seeing the movement of units and the application of force, more force in that part.
Now, again, we don't have a complete total picture of every unit and where they are on any given day. We're just picking up these continuous indications that tell us that that’s the sort of level of effort they're applying.
- вы говорили, какие-то рашисты пойдут из Грузии в Украину. Вы видели, чтобы они уже шли?
- Не знаю про рашистов из Грузии. У нас всё-таки нет прям подробных отчётов от шойгу, но мы говорили, они пополнят восток, и они его пополнили. Теперь больше 40 БТГ. И мы видим, что они ползут в Валуйки.
Мы вот знаем про одну часть подробно - 18-я мотострелковая дивизия, её перебросили к восточной границе Украины. Это новая дивизия, её только в 2021 сформировали, состоит из трёх механизированных полков, и один танковый полк.
Мы думаем, их зашлют к Краматорску.
Но полной картины прям про все части у нас нет.
Q: Thank you, (Inaudible). Was just wondering, I know you said that you all believe that the Russian's next plan is to hold, fix Ukraine in place and prevent them from maneuvering around. That's a very tall order for any military to do. I mean, do you really assess that they're even capable of doing that? I mean, they can shoot a missile at a train station, but they've been spectacularly failing to conduct even the most rudimentary ground operations. Do you think they're even able to do that? Does the Pentagon...
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: I think we need to remember that the Ukrainians get a vote here, and that they've been very successful on the ground in pushing the Russians out -- pushing them back and defeating them in many places. And they will, my every expectation, will fight hard over the Donbas.
But I don't think anybody's prepared to predict an outcome at this stage, and it would be imprudent to do that. But we see every indication, including in our conversations with the Ukrainians. The secretary spoke with Reznikov yesterday; every indication that they will fight very hard for the Donbas, and they continue to make everyday difficult for the Russians.
So I'd kind of just leave it there.
- вы говорите, рашисты планируют зафиксировать украинцев, чтобы те не смогли маневрировать. Это трудная задача для любой армии, даже более нормальной. Разве рашики могут мечтать об этом? Т.е. ну одно дело убивать людей на вокзале, но они же феерично лажаются даже в простейших наземных операциях.
- Конечно, надо помнить о том, что это зависит от украинцев, и они очень успешно теснят их в разных местах. Они будут очень серьёзно бороться за Донбас.
Но невозможно предсказать результат. Мы знаем, и говорили с Резниковым, они будут бороться за Донбас, и рашистам не поздоровится.
