брифинг американского мин обороныDay 68, we've observed now more than 2,125 missile launches since the start of the invasion. Just go through a little bit here. I know all of you are more interested in the operational stuff, so I would just tell you that we continue to see minimal, at best, progress by the Russians in the Donbas. They've had some minor gains east of Izyum and Popasna in the Luhansk Oblast. But what we saw there in Popasna is not unlike what we've seen in other hamlets in the Donbas. They'll move in and then declare victory, and then withdraw their troops, only to let the Ukrainians take it back. So there was a lot of back-and-forth over the last couple of days, and again, so I would say minimal progress at best in the Donbas. They are still, for all the lessons they are trying to learn, they're still suffering from poor command-and-control, low morale in many units, less-than-ideal logistics. They still have not solved all their logistics problem, and quite frankly, there's a casualty aversion, a risk and casualty aversion that we continue to see by the Russians now, not just in the air, but on the ground. So very, very cautious, very tepid, very uneven work by them on the ground, and in some cases, quite frankly, the best word to describe it would be anemic.
68-й день, >2125 ракетных ударов с начала войны.
Мы продолжаем наблюдать минимальный, в лучшем случае, прогресс рашистов на Донбасе. Они немного захватили территорий к востоку от Изюма и Попасны. Но у них там смотрите как всё, например в Попасне. Они продвигаются, об'являют победу над деревней. Потом уходят оттуда, и украинцы её обратно берут. И вот такой там "прогресс" у рашистов последние пару дней, туда-сюда. Как бы они ни старались учиться на ошибках, учиться им нечем, до сих пор плохое командование, низкие моральный дух, говняная логистика. И знаете, что-то им вдруг стало страшно и неохота помирать! они вдруг наконец-то осознали, что их могут убить, и стали осторожничать. Не только в воздухе, но и на земле. Поэтому в общем они очень вялые.
I do want to highlight, if I could, Kharkiv, which we've not talked about in a long time. The Ukrainians have maintained, obviously, their dominance of Kharkiv, and the Russians have been basically around the city. We haven't really talked about it in a while, but it has continued to come under air assault largely through strikes for sure, but the Ukrainians have been doing an able job over the last 24/48 hours of pushing the Russians further away, and they have managed to push the Russians out about 40 kilometers to the east of Kharkiv. They're pushing them back, so back into areas of the northern Donbas region, but away from Kharkiv, so an incredible effort there that, again, hasn't gotten a lot of headlines and hasn't gotten a lot of attention, but it's just another piece of the stiff Ukrainian resistance that they continue to demonstrate.
And again, to remind, Kharkiv's important to the Russians because it sits at the very northwestern sort of lip and edge of that Donbas region, and as they wanted to, you know, they were obviously hoping to get Kharkiv and hold it so that they could have that ability to continue to push down from the north, and the Ukrainians are making it difficult for them to do that.
Давно не говорили про Харьков. Украинцы очевидно отстояли Харьков, рашисты были вокруг города. Всё это время рашисты атаковали город с воздуха, но в последние 24/48 часов украинцы очень умело сработали и отпихнули рашистов на 40 км на восток от Харькова. Они опихивают их назад, пока ещё на территории Донбаса, но дальше от Харькова, просто невероятно сложную работу они сделали, а никто про это не пишет. Просто один из примеров жёсткого украинского сопротивления.
Харьков очень нужен рашистам, он сидит почти на краю Донбаса, они явно хотели захватить его, чтобы с него давить украинцев с севера, и украинцы их здорово обломили.
No significant, no changes to really talk about in terms of the south, including Mariupol. Mariupol continues to get hit with the standoff air attacks. We continue to see them using dumb bombs in Mariupol, and of course, they're continuing to launch strikes in the Donbas region, the JFO specifically. So no major changes there.
I can't speak with great specificity about the evacuation from Mariupol. We see the same reports that you do, and I don't have I don't have an update on how fast or how slow. We do have indications that some folks have been evacuated, but I would refer you to the Ukrainians to speak to that with a lot more specificity than we can, and I apologize for that.
на юге нет особых изменений, в Мариуполе тоже. Его продолжают бомбить с воздуха, они уже перешли на тупые бомбы (не высокоточные). Район боевых действия на Донбасе они тоже продолжают бомбить.
К сожалению, не знаю про эвакуацию из Мариуполя, видел те же самые сообщения, что и вы.
No real changes to report to you in the in the maritime domain; pretty much maintain that their surface vessels are staying close to Crimea. There's some small efforts in the Sea of Azov. We see with small ships to try to help resupply, but nothing that's different than what we've seen in the past, so just not a whole lot to report to. I've seen the press reporting about the drone attack on these patrol boats. We cannot confirm that, but we've seen the videos, same as you, but we're not in a position to be able to confirm that that attack actually happened and had those effects.
на море нет особых изменений. В Азовском они пытались доставить пополнение маленькими судами, но так ничо интересного. Я видел в прессе, что дроны атаковали эти патрульные лодки. Мы лично не можем подтвердить, но видео красивое.
And I would say the same with General Gerasimov. I'm pretty sure you're going to ask me about that. What we can confirm is that we know that for several days last week he was in the Donbas. We don't believe that he's still there, that he's left and he's back in Russia. We can't confirm reports that he was injured. I've seen the speculation on that. We are in no position to confirm that. We can't refute it, but we certainly can't confirm it. And as for why he was there, again, I think you'd get a much better sense of what his temporarily duty orders were from President Putin, but it's certainly possible that his trip was of a manner of oversight in trying to gauge for himself what was going on in the Donbas. But what he came away with, what he learned, what he transmitted to his commanders, if anything, we just don't know. But we can confirm that he was in the Donbas.
про герасимова могу сказать то же самое. Наверняка щас будете меня спрашивать. Но мы только можем подтвердить, что он был на Донбасе. Мы думаем, что он больше не там, что он вернулся в мазарашу. Не можем подтвердить, что он ранен. Опровергнуть тоже не можем. А к вопросу, на хрена он туда ездил, путину виднее, возможно хотел лично позырить, чо творится. Но что он вынес из своих наблюдений, и что он передаст путину - нам не ведомо.
On the training front, we can now report that more than 170 Ukrainian military soldiers have been trained at more than one location on the M777, and there's another 50-plus that are scheduled to graduate today. So when they do graduate today, in fact, they may have already graduated today, you know, that puts us up over 200 Ukrainian artillerymen trained on the M777.
And there's more of that coming. In fact, tomorrow, there'll be another 50-plus Ukrainians will be arriving at one of the training sites to begin their training later this week. I think I'll leave it at that.
And just yesterday, 20 Ukrainian soldiers commenced a week-long training course on the Phoenix Ghost UAS. So the training continues and it's having an impact.
уже 170 украинцев научились, как стрелять из гаубиц, сегодня ещё 50 закончат. И ещё 50 готовятся научиться, завтра прибудут.
20 украинцев собираются учиться как пользоваться Phoenix Ghost дронами, займёт неделю.
Q: Yeah, the -- British intelligence is saying that roughly 25 percent of the Russian BTGs are combat ineffective. Would you guys agree with that estimate, and if not, do you have another number?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: I have not seen indications that give us, you know, that specific number, so I can't speak to the number that the Brits put out there. We assess that they've got 93 now total operational BTGs in Ukraine, and as I've said before, we have to be mindful of what we say when we say "operational."
Not all of them are as ready as others. They continue to suffer losses, both in terms of gear and people, and some BTGs are simply not as ready as others. But I can't corroborate the number of 25 percent ineffective.
I also don't know by what criteria the Brits are labeling a BTG as ineffective. So I don't have the metrics they're using to make that determination. We would assess clearly that not all of those operational BTGs, while operational, i.e. in the fight, are at the same level of combat readiness they were before going into Ukraine and we know that they have suffered losses, you know, since being in Ukraine.
- британская разведка сказала, что 25% рашистских БТГ - непригодны к бою. Вы согласны?
- нам трудно подтвердить такие цифры, не знаю как британцы считают. У нас вот данные, что там 93 рабочих БТГ, но тут нюансы, что называть "рабочими".
Не все группы одинаково "рабочие". У них продолжаются потери, и в технике, и в мясе. Некоторые БТГ не такие уж рабочие, некоторые получше. Но я не могу сказать, что прямо 25% того.
Не знаю, как британцы считают, но я скажу так, что хоть эти 93 БТГ и "рабочие", по нашим критериям, т.е. они продолжают бои, они не все одинаково "рабочие", и уж точно менее рабочие, чем они были до того, как впёрлись в Украину. Потому что их там делают менее рабочими.
Q: Got it. And as far as any Russian units moving up north from Mariupol or that area, any sense?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: We have continued to see them move forces north out of Mariupol but I can't enumerate that, I don't know. But we have seen, even over the last couple of days, a continued, you know, move north away from Mariupol, from a lot, I would say the majority of the battalion tactical groups. And they had about a dozen that were dedicated to Mariupol move away.
Largely, the efforts around Mariupol for the Russians are now in the realm of airstrikes.
- а что там про рашистов, которые уходят из Мариуполя?
- мы продолжаем наблюдать, что они отводят силы от Мариуполя на север, но не могу посчитать сколько. Но вот последние дни видим движение на север от большинства БТГ там. А там было 12.
Сейчас всё, что делают рашисты в Мариуполе, это бомбят с воздуха.
Q: Sorry, just one follow up, there's also a report that Putin is going in for cancer surgery and that he may hand over the reins to a former FSB General. Is there any truth to that?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: I have not seen any information at all on that. Cannot confirm that.
- были сообщения, что хуютин собирается делать операцию от рака и передаст бразды правления какому-то ещё одному бывшему кгбшному генералу. Это правда?
- я такой инфо не видел, не могу подтвердить
Q: Well, you mentioned these anemic probes behind the Russians. Is it still the sense of the -- or the evaluation of the Pentagon that the Russian offensive has not yet begun? Or is this it?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL:
And I've been saying for a long time that, yes, offensive operations in the Donbas has begun. And for a while they were doing shaping, then it was the balance of shaping and some minor operations.
But we believe that they are, in fact, conducting offensive operations. And, now at what scale? I mean, all I would tell you is that they are not making the progress that they had scheduled to make. That the progress is uneven and incremental. And even, as I said, anemic in many places.
And that's not just because of Russian planning or lack of or logistics or lack of. It's a lot of it, because the Ukrainians have really been resisting quite well. And I think I would just leave it at that.
Q: But is -- just you called it a -- you've been calling it a limited offense. Is it still considered a limited offensive or is it considered the best the Russians can muster under the circumstances?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: All I can do is tell you what we're seeing now, David, and what we're seeing, again, incremental, uneven progress by the Russians. I don't know what it's going to look like tomorrow. So, they are a clearly in the offensive mode now. That's what they are doing. But they are not being as successful as they expected to be.
- вы говорили про рашистское наступление, что они вяло тыкаются. Пентагон считает, что по-настоящему их наступление ещё не началось? или вот это - оно?
- я уже давно говорил, что наступление на Донбасе началось. Хотя сначала они ещё продолжали формирование, потом уже почти сформировались и начали небольшие операции.
На самом деле у них сейчас оно, наступление. Прогресс жалкий. И даже вялый.
И не только потому что они идиоты. Но и потому что украинцы офигительно сопротивляются. В общем, я всё сказал.
- нет, но вы говорили, что у них ограниченное наступление. До сих пор считается, что ограниченное, или это всё, что русские могут?
- Дэвид, я не знаю, что ещё сказать. Мы видим, что у них неровный прогресс. Я не знаю, что они отчебучат завтра. Они явно наступают. Но у них получается хуже, чем они ожидали.
Q: Hey. So a question on something you said last week. Any more explanation for some of the explosion in (inaudible), so breakaway region? And secondly, are you seeing any signs of Russia looking to invade either Moldova or the breakaway region next to it?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: No indications that invasions beyond what they've done in Ukraine are in the offing, and I don't have any additional information on the explosions in Moldova.
- вопрос про Приднестровье и взрывы там. У вас не появилось об'яснений? Вы видите признаки, что рашисты хотя влезть и в Молдову или Приднестровье?
- Не видим признаков других вторжений, кроме как в Украину, про взрывы тоже нет инфо.
Q: Okay, so that's in addition. And that -- and then third question: Kherson is something of a block -- black box at this point with -- with Russia having control and raising some troubling plans. Do you have an assessment you could offer on where Kherson and the surrounding areas stands today?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: You know, it's funny. I looked at that today, and there's really just been no significant changes over the last couple of days with respect to Kherson. Kherson was still shown as Russian occupied, but no major changes there. We’re not seeing any move to advance out of Kherson towards Mykolaiv, and the Ukrainians we still assess hold Mykolaiv. And there's been some fighting in between, if you look at the map and you know, Mykolaiv sits to the northwest of Kherson. I mean, there's been some fighting between them, but no real progress. It's kind of been a bit of like elsewhere in the Donbas, it's been a little bit of back-and-forth.
- про Херсон ничего не рассказываете, а рашисты его захватили и планируют какие-то гадости. У вас есть инфо про Херсон и окрестности?
- Я как раз сегодня смотрел, но никаких особых изменений там нет. Мы не видим, чтобы рашисты пытались из Херсона атаковать Николаев. Там продолжаются бои между Херсоном и Николаевым, но нет особого прогресса. Как и везде на Донбасе, туда-сюда.
Q:
I have two questions. One, have you seen any indication of why Russia is moving troops out of Mariupol? You said they're moving northwest, I believe, out of Mariupol, but can you tell us a little bit more about what the purpose is?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yes, the sense is that they obviously believe that they can afford to move those troops away from Mariupol. And as we talked about a while ago, one of the reasons why we think Mariupol is important to them, and there are several, is so that they can make a push to the north into the Donbas from the south. So it's, again, all of a piece of their efforts to encircle Ukrainian troops that are in the Donbas. They can push on those Ukrainian troops, the line of contact, from the east where they already had troops, like in Luhansk and that area, and Popasna and Kreminna, pushing to the west from the east with the troops they already had in the eastern Donbas. And they are trying to come in from the north behind the Ukrainians and from the south behind the Ukrainians to try to encircle them.
So we're already seeing, and much of the first part of this conversation was about the efforts that they're having with the northerly push to south from Izyum, which has been plodding, and as I said, anemic. And they are trying to gather some sort of momentum coming up from the south, coming up from, you know, release those BTGs out of Mariupol to come up from the south to, again, come in behind the Ukrainians. But they have not made much progress at all with that.
- а зачем рашисты уводят войска из Мариуполя?
- очевидно, они считают, что они там больше не особо нужны. И к тому же им Мариуполь был нужен, чтобы из него атаковать на север. Чтобы окружить украинцев на Донбасе. Так что им срочно пора окружать, и вот они пошли.
Из Изюма они пытаются идти на юг, и чтобы встретиться с этими из Мариуполя. Но вяло тыкаются. Вот наверно эти из Мариуполя спешат быстрее к ним на помощь. Ну как "быстрее" - как получается.
Q:
You mentioned the unmanned coastal defense vessels. Have -- will you -- can you say if any of those have been delivered yet? And can you say how many have been committed to Ukraine?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: No, and we're not going to talk about that, John. Thanks for asking that, but we're not going to get into the specific numbers on that. That's just not a capability we're going to do much talking about.
- а что с водными дронами для береговой защиты - их уже доставили? и сколько их?
- нет, я про них не буду говорить. Мы вообще про них говорить не хотим.
