брифинг амер. минобороныWe have also observed, as you guys have all seen, you know, some increasing strike activities in central Ukraine, including Kyiv, as -- as well as Western Ukraine, including Odesa and the Odesa area. Again, I -- I want to be careful here. We -- we don't have perfect visibility into Russian targeting and -- and the Russian mindset as to everything they're doing. But in general, what we think they're trying to do is get at the ability of the Ukrainians to -- to replenish their own stores and to reinforce themselves.
So for instance, we're seeing at -- at least attempted attacks on -- on electrical power facilities, perhaps because the Russians believe if they can knock out some electricity, they can affect the ability of trains, for instance, to move. So it -- it's -- it's not a perfect picture. For instance, in Kyiv, some of the strikes in Kyiv we believe were meant for -- for military production capabilities. Now, I know that there's reports that they hit residential areas. We have no reason to doubt that they did, but we don't believe at 100 percent certain that they meant to hit residential areas. In other words, they could have been misses.
The -- the strikes around Odesa are a little bit more difficult to discern exactly what they're doing there. We still don't see any -- any amphibious move on Odesa, or any ground move on Odesa. Again, it could be of a piece -- could be of a piece of their efforts to try to pin down Ukrainian forces in the area between Odesa and Mykolaiv so that they can't come to the assistance of their colleagues further in the east in the Donbas area. We -- we're not 100 percent sure. I don't want to own their thought process; I'm just trying to give you what we -- what we kind of think.
мы все видели, что они стали обстреливать больше центральную Украину, Киев, и западную, и Одессу. Опять же, мы не знаем, куда они целятся и вообще что у них в башках, но мы _думаем_, что они пытаются целиться по снабжению.
Например, мы видели, что они пытались атаковать электростанцию. Наверно они думают, что электричество отрубят, и поезда перестанут ездить. В Киеве например они наверно целились в производство оружия. Да, я знаю, что попали они в дома. Но я не уверен на 100%, что они туда хотели попасть. Грубо говоря, они могли промазать.
Удары по Одессе ещё труднее осмыслить. Мы не видим никаких других попыток атаковать Одессу. Может быть, они по ней бьют, чтобы украинские силы и не думали оттуда уходить на Донбас, например. На самом деле я не знаю, пытаюсь просто угадать, чо им надо.
Now, in the Donbas area, again, still fighting over in -- in various different locations. We believe that essentially what they're doing is -- is continuing to set conditions for a sustained and larger and longer offensive; that I am not suggesting that offensive hasn't begun. Of course, they've begun. There is fighting there. But we still think that it is of a piece of their trying to set the proper conditions for -- for sustained offensive operations.
На Донбасе бои в разных местах. И мы думаем, они ещё продолжают готовиться типа начать ещё более мощное и долгое наступление. Не то что наступление ещё не началось. Началось. Но они как будто продолжают ещё готовиться.
They have made some -- the Russians now have made some incremental, uneven and slow advances to the southeast and southwest of Izyum. They appear to be advancing toward towards Sloviansk and a place called Barvinkoe. They continue to use -- and this is, again, we've talked about this before, given what we expected them to do in the Donbas and -- and the importance of long-range fires, but what we see them doing is using artillery and some airstrikes in advance of their ground movements. And so their ground movements are fairly plodding because A, the artillery and airstrikes that they are launching against Ukrainian positions are not having the effect that they want them to have. The Ukrainians are still able to resist a number -- and -- and B, they're still a little wary of getting out ahead of their supply lines. They don't want to make the same mistakes that they've made in Kyiv, and so we think they're -- they're making this sort of plodding, uneven progress, but it is very doctrinal in its approach: launch airstrikes, artillery strikes in advance of -- of ground movements, and then only -- only then, when you think you've softened up the Ukrainian lines do you start to move your ground units. But they're running straight into stiff Ukrainian resistance. So that's why we think this progress has been slow and uneven still over the last 24 hours.
они продвинулись - неровно и медленно - в некоторых местах на юговосток и югозапад от Изюма. Вроде бы двигаются на Словянск и Барвинкове. При продвижении они продолжают использовать артилерию и бомбардировки - мы так и знали, что они будут, поэтому понимали важность орудий большой дальности. Короче, двигаются они медленно - почему? потому что
а) их артилерийские удары по типа украинским позициям попадают наверно не по украинским позициям
б) они опасаются отходить далеко от своих снабженцев. Не хотят как в прошлый раз.
Но ваще такие прям по учебнику - сначала артилерией побомбить, а потом такие довольные будем продвигаться. Побомбили. Продвинулись. Оппа, а тут украинцы. Живые. И злые.
We also assess that because of this slow and uneven progress, again, without perfect knowledge of every aspect of the Russian plan, we do believe and assess that they are behind schedule in what they were trying to accomplish in the Donbas. We still believe that -- that they want to -- that -- that they want to press the Ukrainians from three -- from three directions: from the east, where they already have Russian forces in the -- the -- the eastern part of the Donbas region and have had for eight years; from the north, we just talked about that coming out of Izyum; and then from the south coming out of Mariupol. I do not have today a -- a number of how many troops have left Mariupol and are moving north. I -- I know I'm going to get asked that question. I'm trying to get ahead of you here. I don't have that number, but we still assess that they are moving forces, trying to move north out of Mariupol and so that they can approach the Ukrainian Armed Forces from that southerly direction. But again, we would assess that their progress in doing so has been slow and uneven, and certainly not decisive in any -- in any event.
мы думаем, что из-за того что они так медленно продвигаются, они отстают от графика. Мы конечно точно не видели их график. Но что-то нам подсказывает.
Мы думаем, они пытаются окружить украинцев с трёх сторон, с востока, с севера (Изюм) и с юга (Мариуполь). Я знаю, вы хотите спросить, сколько отошло от Мариуполя, но я не знаю кол-во. Но мы видим, что они начали ползти. Очень медленно и неровно.
Today, we believe that they -- they still have 92 operational BTGs in Ukraine, but that doesn't mean, as I said yesterday, that these are all -- BTGs are full-up rounds. Yes, they're operational. They're capable of -- of conducting combat operations, but as I said yesterday, we believe they have suffered attrition. They have suffered losses. Not all these BTGs are -- are at 100 percent capability, and we also assess that part of this is not -- is -- is obviously, the -- the fighting that's going on, but also because, you know, they -- they were fairly rushed in reinforcing some of these units into the east. You know, we -- we talked a couple of weeks ago about how they are moving troops out of Kyiv and Chernihiv and -- and they were to move them to the east to Velykyi and to Belgorod and refit them and resupply them. And that happened, but it happened at a fairly clipped -- a fairly-fast clip, and -- and so we don't assess that every BTG that was put back in was put back in even at full strength. So just something to -- to note.
да, у них там 92 БТГ, но это не значит, что они все здоровые и румяные. Да, они ещё как бы работающие. Они могут стрелять, но они поизносились. У них потери. Не все из них на 100% производительности. Частично потому что их продолжают бить, но частично потому что их так поторопились вернуть в строй - этих, которые сдриснули от Киева. Помните, мы видели, что их там в валуйках собираются помыть, очистить от очисток. Так вот, их хреново отчистили.
Of course, they have a numeric advantage and they are concentrating more force in a smaller geographic area, so we have to take that into account. And again, the Ukrainians are putting up a strong resistance throughout the -- throughout the area.
конечно их всё равно пока ещё дохуя, и они собрались на меньшей площади, это не надо забывать. Но украинцы им показывают.
