сегодняшний брифинг американского минобороныI know everybody's going to be focused on Kyiv and what we're seeing there. We have seen, since the last time we chatted, we have seen continued repositioning of Russian forces from Kyiv, and frankly, from Chernihiv, as well. We assess that they are largely consolidating themselves in Belarus prior to some level of redeployment back into Ukraine. Last week, I think I told you we were at 20 percent or so. I think we would estimate the percentage of troops that were centered around Kyiv that have departed the area at about two-thirds. So they have about a third left of the forces that they had arrayed against Kyiv that are still there.
знаю, все хотят узнать про Киев. Мы видим, что рашисты продолжают переставлять свою солдатню от Киева, и ещё от Чернигова. Они их собирают в беларуси опять, чтобы потом снова заслать в Украину. На прошлой неделе я говорил, только 20% переставили. Теперь я б сказал - 2/3. Т.е. треть ещё осталась около Киева.
Again, I'm just telling you what we're seeing. I can't predict what that other third's going to do or when; if they're going to move and when. But again, we see them heading north. We do begin to see them consolidating in Belarus. What we continue to believe is that they're going to be refit, resupplied, perhaps maybe even reinforced with additional manpower, and then sent back into Ukraine to continue fighting elsewhere. Our best assessment, and it is only an assessment, is that they will be applied in the eastern part of the country in the Donbas region, but that is an assessment only. We haven't seen them begin to move so we'll have to take this kind of day by day.
Ещё раз, я просто говорю, что мы видим. Я не знаю, что эта треть будет дальше делать, будут они её переставлять или нет.
Мы видим, они идут на север. Скапливаются в беларуси. Мы считаем, они там
[выгрузят ковры], может, получат подкрепление, и их опять в Украину зашлют. Больше всего мы ставим на то, что их закинут на восток на Донбас, но зуб не дадим. Они пока никуда не двигаются.
No significant changes in -- in posture around Kharkiv or Izyum, but we do believe that on that Izyum axis, as they begin to want to move south and southeast towards Donbas that they are repositioning and reinforcing their artillery efforts. So we have seen them put some energy into that axis coming south out of Izyum. Again, very much in keeping with what we've said for days now, that we are going to see them become more aggressive in the Donbas region.
нет заметных изменений около Харькова или Изюма, но похоже от Изюма они собираются двигаться на юг и юго-восток к Донбасу, вроде они по направлению к югу более энергичны.
No major changes in Mariupol. A bitter fight over Mariupol continues. No indications that the Russians have made any progress in taking Mariupol. We have seen some indications that they are assembling some forces to the north of Mariupol in the Donetsk area for maybe wanting to go -- maybe wanting to go a little bit -- push up to the north. Again, that's in keeping with what we've said, that they would want to close off that Donbas area. But as for Mariupol itself, still a very bitter fight for the city.
в Мариуполе продолжаются бои. Незаметно прогресса у рашистов. Они вроде собирают солдатню на север от Мариуполя, может хотят оттуда ещё. Понятно, они хотят Мариуполь, там очень тяжёлые бои.
We've assessed that they've, in the Kherson area, as we've been talking about for the last few days, that they've kind of, the Russians have kind of gotten pinched in between Kherson and Mykolaiv. We now assess that they've shifted much more to a defensive posture around Kherson.
рашистов зажали между Херсоном и Николаевым, по-моему, они там окапываются
No major changes in the air picture; still contested airspace. The Russians are still flying about, you know, well, more than 200 sorties a day, is our latest estimate, so that's not all that different from what we've seen over the last few days. Most of their airstrikes are focusing on the Izyum area, again, back to what we've talked about last week, that joint forces operation area and Izyum.
в воздухе до сих пор нет превосходства, рашисты ещё летают, больше 200 вылазок в день, примерно как раньше. Большинство ударов около Изюма.
And of course, I know you've all seen the reports of a strike on Odesa, where they claim they hit an oil depot. We don't have anything that would refute that claim. It's difficult to know, and I know this'll come up in the questions, why did they do that? Is it a prelude to an amphibious assault, or what's the reason? And I couldn't tell you exactly what the reason. It could be that they are beginning to make preparations for a move on Odesa. It could be that they are simply doing that to try to pin down Ukrainian forces there, make them think that there's something big coming in Odesa, and so that they stay and try to protect the city. It's just not clear, but we do assess that that was an airstrike conducted by the Russians.
вы видели, они бомбили Одессу, якобы они разбомбили нефтяную базу. Мы не знаем что.
И главное непонятно - зачем? что это значит? Собираются напасть с моря или что? Непонятно. Может, собираются напасть на Одессу. Может, отвлекают украинских военных от других мест - чтобы украинцы подумали, что Одессу надо срочно защищать. Непонятно, но понятно, что русские на самолёте прилетали бомбить.
We have not; so that leads me into the maritime stuff. We've not seen any major maritime changes in the Black Sea. We do see that the Russians are conducting security patrols south of Odesa, and we do see some of their LSTs active in the Azov Sea, but know again no major, you know, signs of an imminent amphibious assault. We think a lot of those LSTs are probably arranged for resupply. Now, we haven't seen any resupply efforts since that LST got sunk at the pier, but we do believe that that's probably the focus of their LSTs there in the Azov Sea.
в море так-то особых изменений нет. Рашисты патрулируют к югу от Одессы, какие-то LST (корабли с танками) плавают в Азовском море, но нет признаков, что собираются напасть с моря. Может они на этих корытах просто хотят танки новые своим дебилам подвезти, но ссут после прошлого раза.
Missile launches since the beginning of the conflict again stands at more than 1,400. There hasn't been a major change in the numbers of missile launches since the last time we talked. Again, we've seen them sort of neck down the missile, not "neck down the numbers," that's not fair, they've sort of refocused, as I said, their airstrikes and missile strikes on that Joint Force Operation area, Izyum and to the south, and then of course, we saw that on Odesa.
обстрелы снарядами, как и с самолётами, - они больше сфокусировались на востоке, у Изюма. И Одесса вот.
Clearly, they're still hitting Mariupol but we have not seen the same level of airstrike activity on Kyiv. So there's been a declination there over the last few days. Please don't ask me to enumerate that for you. I can't give you how many less, it's just that we're seeing them reprioritize their air activity, in terms of missile and airstrikes, on the JFO, Izyum, and then, as I said, we saw those strikes on Odesa.
Мариуполь до сих пор обстреливают, но Киев поменьше. Только не спрашивайте точные цифры.
Q: Hi. Thank you. Want, can you give us some sort of assessment, with the number of Russian troops that are going towards Belarus, how many or what percentage of that 150 to 190,000 Russians may still be in Ukraine? And are you including troops around Sumy as part of that one-third that are still there? Because we are also hearing that some are also leaving Sumy.
And then just can you give us an assessment of what you all are assessing happened in Bucha with the atrocities that everyone is seeing now?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL:
On the numbers, yeah but not really, on the numbers, again, I would say, look, we still assess that the vast, vast majority of the more than 125 battalion tactical groups that the Russians invested in this invasion are still in Ukraine.
They had a portion of that to the north and northwest of Kyiv. They had, I would just say, in the neighborhood of about 20, a little less than 20 BTGs were sort of arrayed against the north and northwest of Kyiv. And of that group, again, we estimate that two-thirds of it is now either in Belarus or on the way to Belarus.
Yes, we have seen some repositioning out of Sumy and into Russia. I couldn't give you a number on that but we have seen, in addition to Chernihiv, you're right, some have moved out of Sumy and are repositioning outside of Ukraine.
And then on Bucha, I mean, we can't independently confirm the reports of atrocities in Bucha. We're seeing the same imagery that you are. We have no reason whatsoever to refute the Ukrainian claims about these atrocities. Clearly, deeply, deeply troubling.
We have said even before that the Russians were going to be brutal in this invasion and they have proven to be that and then some, and we have said we've seen evidence of Russian war crimes.
Clearly, we would expect to see the reports coming out of Bucha to be investigated as part of that larger issue of war crimes, but again, I can't, we can't, the Pentagon can't independently and single-handedly confirm them but we're also not in any position to refute those claims. I mean, the imagery is pretty stark as it is.
- про цифры, вот вы говорите, некоторые ушли в беларусь, а сколько ещё в Украине осталось из тех 150-190 тыщ, которых они изначально заслали? А эти, которые от Сум отошли, вы их включаете в "2/3 от Киева"?
И что вы можете нам рассказать про Бучу, какие зверства сейчас все увидели?
- С цифрами сложно, ну смотрите, подавляющее большинство их >125 батальонов, которых они подготовили - всё ещё в Украине.
Из них часть - ну может 20 батальонов - была под Киевом. Из них 2/3 вернули в беларусь.
Да, от Сум тоже переместили некоторых в рашу, вы правы. (Не входит в 2/3, это в придачу).
Про Бучу, у нас нет собственных данных про зверства в Буче. Не видим причины сомневаться в том, что украинцы говорят.
Мы сразу говорили, что рашисты - нелюди, так оно и вышло, и даже хуже. И мы раньше говорили, что видели военные преступления.
Конечно всё, что в Буче, будут расследовать, но у нас лично улик нет.
Q: Staying on Donbas, are you seeing any more troops -- Russian troops coming in from Georgia? And also, any Syrian troops? And also, can you address the reports about the U.S. assisting in getting Russian-made tanks into Ukraine?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: So on the Donbas reinforcements, I don't have anything for you today, Tom, in terms of things we can independently verify in terms of reinforcing manpower there.
And on the tanks, look, I would just say that; two things. One, we continue to discuss and talk with allies and partners about security assistance for Ukraine. And when it comes to anti-armor and anti-air, short range anti-air and small arms and ammunition, medical supplies, those kinds of, we are actively coordinating, in fact have over the last 24 hours coordinated shipments from a half a dozen other nations, helping coordinate that and getting it into ground movement into Ukraine.
But these decisions about what a nation provides to Ukraine are national decisions that they have to make for themselves. And we're not, you know, we're not, we respect those national decisions, we're not in a position to veto any of them, but I think I just would leave it at that.
- Вы видите больше русской солдатни из Грузии? Или сирийцев?
А можете прокомментировать рассказы, что США собирается помочь Украине получить русские танки?
- солдатню не можем подтвердить
Танки. Ну смотрите. Мы вообще-то продолжаем разговоры с партнёрами, как помочь Украине. И всяких противотанковых, противовоздушных, медицины - мы все им всё это даём.
Но в общем, что другие страны хотят дать Украине - это их дело. Мы все решения уважаем и не лезем. Считайте, что я всё сказал.
Q:
And a quick question on Switchblades. For the first time, DOD has acknowledged the name of those drones. Is this version of the Switchblades a new anti-armor version that can destroy tanks?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Tony, I'm not going to get into the variants. I think you can understand why we wouldn't get into the specifics on the systems that are going into Ukraine. I mean, I can't imagine a world where that would be a smart thing for us to do for Ukrainian OPSEC.
- Хочу спросить про Switchblades. Наконец-то пентагон раскололся, какой бренд дронов он даёт украинцам. А какая конкретно модель? Новая? которая может танки взрывать?
- Тони, ты же умный человек, нафига ты такое спрашиваешь. Я вот не представляю, какой нахрен смысл мне щас тебе всё выкладывать, если мы желаем добра Украине.
Q: Do you consider what happened around Kyiv as a victory for the Ukrainian, and the way that you are helping them?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: I don't, look, I'd leave it to President Zelenskyy to classify things as a victory or not. That's not a characterization we would get into at the Defense Department. I mean, what I would say is clearly the maximalist goals originally set out by Mr. Putin have not been obtained, have not been reached.
He made it very clear publicly what he was going after. No matter what their narrative is now, and they can, you know, this is classic Russian behavior, will say well, we didn't really want that in the beginning. But Mr. Putin made clear, he didn't respect, didn't observe, didn't acknowledge Ukraine's sovereignty.
He has violated their territorial integrity over the last eight years. He made it very clear that he was after regime change in Ukraine. And that a key piece of achieving that regime change was taking the capital city. He has failed to do that, and they are now moving away from, on the ground they're moving away from Kyiv.
But I would go back, Pierre, to what I said before, number one that doesn't mean Kyiv is not under threat. It can still be hit from the air even though we haven't seen them prioritize that in the last 24 hours doesn't mean they can't change course.
And it doesn't mean that there's no ground threat to Kyiv either, they still have a good third of their forces arrayed against Kyiv are still there. Now, we'll see what they do with them. Nobody's taking this for granted, nobody's spiking any footballs here and claiming that Kyiv is no longer under any kind of threat. The truth is, we're not sure exactly what the long-range goal here is for Mr. Putin. We do see evidence that, as they say they are, they want to reprioritize the Donbas region. But for how long and with what end goal in sight, and where that takes the larger war is completely unclear to the United States.
- как вы думаете, освобождение Киева - это победа для украинцев?
- Это пусть Зеленский решает, победа или нет. Мы тут такие оценки не даём. Я бы так сказал - определённо главная цель путина провалилась.
Он сразу публично об'явил, что ему надо. Неважно, что они сейчас бормочут, это вообще классика рашистского поведения, "а мы сразу так и хотели". Но пукин сразу сказал, что не уважает и не признаёт украинский суверинитет.
Он уже восемь лет нарушает границы. Он сразу сказал, что собирается сменить режим в Украине. И для этого главное - захватить Киев. Он облажался, они отодвинулись от Киева.
Но это не значит, что Киев теперь в безопасности. Они до сих пор могут бомбить его с воздуха. Хотя последние 24 часа они меньше бомбят, но в любой момент могут начать снова.
Да и на земле у них ещё треть зомби осталась. Посмотрим, что они будут с ними делать. Рано радоваться. Кто знает, что в башке у дебила. Вроде бы они концентрируются на востоке. Но надолго ли? И что потом? Мы не знаем.
